Public:ARHUDFM Manifesto

Abstract

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Augmented Reality Head-Up Display Fullface Mask (ARHUDFM) is a complex device that is not easy to understand at a first look because there are few relevant examples to compare. Therefore, we ask you to discard as much as possible all prejudices, past experience, authoritative names and opinions previously expressed by anyone. Then it will become easier to understand the ideas, algorithms, mechanics of the processes associated with the functions of this device and its applications.

It is also important to focus attention on that today in 2023 the pace of technology development is many times higher than in 2007, when the world got acquainted with the first iPhone. This means that a fundamentally new device today has a higher technological base than 16 years ago, and its evolutionary path from "1st to 14th model", measured in terms of user capabilities, will take less than 5 years. The comparison with the iPhone is not accidental. This technology has disrupted user behavior. We strive for a similar effect for the military and security forces, and therefore we deeply research the user experience, problems, risks, potential opportunities and current trends in the field of defense and security.

It is important to understand that this technology is intended for 2030-2060, i.e. the period of its widespread deployment and use. We need to look at the future of life and technology in these coming years without looking back, then our plan will become better understood. If we don't do it, someone else will.

The experience of the appearance of new technologies shows that in the first years many people evaluate them with a certain degree of skepticism. For example, who were YouTube and Amazon in 2004? Why do they have such a strong head start over the rest in "the red ocean market" today?

But there are also negative examples where companies have lost their appeal because their spirit of innovation has dried up. Therefore, our backlog is very extensive and deep. We will be able to offer users and customers something new not only now, but also in 15-20 years.

The U.S. is known to set trends. Therefore, after a couple of years, other countries will also catch up. And if so, then serious investments will come to the segment.

In addition, it is necessary to get ahead of the question in advance: "How is it possible to do this with the forces of a small startup so far?" Our answer, we are sure, will be understood and accepted by you with confidence: "Of course, our research and development is innovative. But we are swimming in the middle of a turbulent river of innovations of tens of thousands of people. Most of the Open Source software functions and technologies, electronic components and integrated circuits have already been created and are available to us in the role of integrators. In accordance with our idea, we assemble a constructor from many puzzles. Therefore, the share of pure innovation in this product does not exceed 10%. And if several large corporations in the 2000s with the help of several thousand engineers with a budget of more than a billion did something similar in 8-10 years, then in the 2020s, something even better with the help of its own several dozen engineers plus Open Source, with a budget of less than 50 million, can make a startup within 5-7 years, moving from simple to more complex, update after update. While creating an open platform for third-party development teams to join (this is also a DoD requirement)."

Manifesto

We are an international team committed to democracy, peace, human rights and health. We create capabilitites for strengthening defense in the countries of NATO and its allies. We understand that only a significant superiority in military force can keep the peace, as it deprives dictators and terrorists of the hope of even a short-term victory. Therefore, we share the ideas and strategic goals that are described in the many policy documents and requests for innovative proposals that we receive from the defense agencies of the U.S., EU, Switzerland, UK, Canada, Israel, Australia, South Korea, Japan.

We are developing ARHUDFM technology so that the military personnel of these states can:

• Increase efficiency (lethality; consistency; savings in time, ammunition, equipment and carry weight; logistics)
• Increase security (threat and impact detection distance; detection protection; repositioning; quick assistance; vitals body signs tracking, Care Under Fire (auto stopping acute bleeding) and Resuscitation on the Move (automatic fluid and cardiopulmonary resuscitation); face and respiratory protection
• Reduce stress (psychological and physical; drinking system; monitoring of vital signs)
• Improve skills (learning and training quality; mentoring; best practice tips; AI assistance)

Human Augmentation

The meaning of Human Augmentation is complex and relatively new to people, so it will not be superfluous to specify what it includes.

1. Expanded visual perception of the environment using sensors
2. Augmented visual perception with numeric, symbolic and graphical data
3. Augmented visual perception of processed data of received radio frequencies of transponders, scanning of a RF wideband, RF source direction finding, radars and anti-radars
4. Mixed natural auditory perception of the environment and auditory perception of superimposed channels of filtered frequencies, dedicated sound waves, audio interface and voice communication
5. Augmented human cognitive capabilities with the help of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies:
   1. Machine perception - perception through Computer Vision, Computer Audition, RF Scan without user distraction (in the background)
   2. Machine analysis of information about the environment - analysis and thinking based on machine perception, providing ready-made results and recommendations to the user, sending messages to the analytical control center
   3. Machine attention - concentration and prioritization of machine perception and analysis processes, notifications and critical messages about threats to the user
   4. Machine memory - Machine Learning, incl. remembering the best practices of many users, and extracting data "just in time" for the user on his request and without request in the form of tips
   5. AI-based voice assistant - Generated Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) - in this case, a small language model and small generative Artificial Intelligence that can understand the natural language of users and other people in several languages, translate into other languages, independently form commands for applications, take into account cognitive stereotypes (habits) and user preferences, independently interact with other AI-based systems, interpret the results of applications and other AI systems - is an important part of the interface

AI capabilities	App	Features	Notes
Machine perception	CVC	ML-based image detection and recognition, user attention control
	CAC	ML-based audio detection and recognition, user attention control
	STT	user pronounce recognition
	SDRS	RF scanning can run in the background and contact the user in case of threats or the need to make a decision, uses ML to detect and recognize the RF graphic shape of 2D / 3D spectrum, waterfall patterns for signals, and multiple carriers, TSK integrated
	RFDD	uses ML algorhitms to identify the type of threat from drones (land, waterborne and aerial drones) by comparing different RF patterns, CVC and CAC integrated
	EODD	ML-based RF scan modes, CVC integrated
Machine analysis	TESS	voice assistant, VUI support incl. apps control
	TSK	creation and auto-completion of auto-tasks, task management assistance, BMS and L-STE integrated
	NAV, PATH	selecting the optimal route, position and position change; TSK, BMS and L-STE integrated
	RPAC	ML-based control, autonomous planning and execution of the drone mission (land, waterborne and aerial drones), TSK integrated
	ANLS	mission performance analysis integrated with existing BMS and L-STE systems
	IFF	can assign the status, use optimal directional interrogation signal mode automatically, TSK integrated
	STM	can change the mode automatically
	P2P	computing acceleration (p2p, FPGA/ASIC and CPU cores balancing), multi-user computing (p2p)
	CHAT	mental clusterization, user auto-reply to the system and other users, automatic event messages
	WGR	automatic performance Intra-Domain and Cross-Domain Interaction rules; CHAT, TSK, BMS and L-STE integrated
	SDR2	can change the mode automatically incl. digital data transmission at hopping frequencies (DEFH)
	ANTC	automatic beam direction tracking, support up to 48 connections at the same time
Machine attention	TIPS	best practices from many users, rapid and best decisions
	FA	target selection and prioritization, fire correction, TSK integrated
	VM	user AI-based virtual avatar, tactical exercises in L-STE, personal mentoring
	VBS	monitoring, warnings, resuscitation tips and auto-mode, TSK integrated
Machine memory	TIPS, VM	ML-based, incl. remembering the best practices of many users
	TRSL	context-aware machine translation

The use of Machine Learning technologies on the client (user device) reduces the training period many times over, as the most complex functions and calculations are performed automatically without user involvement. And in cases where the final decision must be made by a human, AI offers recommendations based on best practices. The user can accept the tip or reject it.

Any user after 2 months of training can be a highly skilled communications engineer, electronic warfare engineer, radar and counter-radar engineer, experienced data analyst, drone operator, first class rifleman and paramedic. Without the help of AI, it takes many years of training and practice for the user to do this.

Visual Augmentation

Human vision is 3/4 of all information received, more than 75%. The benefits for military personnel combine 5 areas at the same time:

• the capability for the user to see beyond human abilities (zoom in, at dusk, in the dark, in front of a dazzling light source, in the invisible infrared, in the invisible radio frequency range)
• the capability for the user to see simultaneously from different angles (front, back, view from the camera of the sight, view from the camera of a drone or robot, view from the camera of another user)
• the capability to detect and recognize objects, people and faces, movement, flashes, heat and smoke traces, identify friend or foe within line of sight (LOS) and beyond line of sight (BLOS), incl. in the background, i.e. 100% attention focus always
• the capability to use synthetic visual aids: navigation grids and signs, maps, virtual enemy during training, symbolic and text messages, graphic information, digital data
• the capability, without losing the overview of the environment, to have several combined visual layers and parallel visual channels

To implement these capabilities, optical lenses, 8K UHD (ultra high-definition video), HDR (high dynamic range), SWIR (short wavelength infrared), LWIR (long wavelength infrared) sensors, SDR (software defined radio) integrated circuits are built into the device. And other electronic circuits and modules. Integration with digital sights, drone and robot cameras, cameras of other users, RF antennas for different bands, passive covert surveillance radar (PCSR), metal re-radiation radar (MET3R), weather stations and anemometers, vitals body sensors is also provided.

Audial Augmentation

Human hearing is about 1/7 of the total amount of information, more than 13%. The benefits for military personnel in terms of audio perception and at the same time hearing protection is something to think about in combination with other important advantages of this technology.

The openings at the bottom of the headphones ear cups are permanently open for ambient sound perception with minimal attenuation (less than 10 dB SPL). When the threshold values ​​of the ambient sound pressure are exceeded, these openings are closed with soundproof sealed dampers. The response time of the electromagnetic pushers of the soundproof damper drives is less than 3 ms (0.003 s). This is faster than the period of movement of a blast wave at a distance of 8 yards and sound wave at a distance 4 ft.

There are several reasons why soundproof dampers are used:

• to reduce the sound pressure level for hearing safety by ∆80 dB SPL to 15-85 dB SPL (upper limit of normal)
• to reduce the level of real-time audio monitoring (audio environment) to distinguish other audio information well
• to reduce the risk and severity of air concussion injury

Key Opinions on Artificial Intelligence for this Technology

• "AI is a complement, not a substitute for a man."
• "Even an 80% solution provides a 10x efficiency gain."
• "One wrong result does not override 10 right ones."

Important facts about lethality and injury

How exactly with the help of this technology we can improve the safety of military personnel needs to be researched based on statistics.

The main damaging factors during combat operations are the following:

• hit by bullets
• damage by non-preformed fragments of explosive ordnance (bomb; land and controlled mine; IED; artillery, mortar, and tank shell; missile, grenade)
• damage by preformed fragments of explosive ordnance
• shock wave (overpressure) damage from explosive ordnance
• shock wave (overpressure) damage from volumetric detonating ordnance - thermobaric and enhanced blast explosives (TBX and EBX)
• temperature and toxic effects of explosive detonation products (soot, CO₂, CO, NO, HCN, P, etc.)
• secondary mechanical damage (fragments of destroyed objects, barriers, stones, body parts, dust)

Localization of injuries according to the statistics of military field surgery in Iraq and Afghanistan: head and neck - 16%, chest - 8%, abdomen and lower back - 7%, limbs - 56%, combined injuries - 13%. The development of technologies in the field of body armor for protecting the chest, lower back and pelvis over the past 100 years has reduced the number of injuries by 3 times. But against the background of a general decrease in the percentage of manpower losses, the proportion of head injuries remains high - up to 20-25% and does not change. In the same way as the share of damage to the limbs - up to 50-60%.

Bullet wounds

The majority of lethality from 50 to 70% are associated with bullet wounds. Non-lethal cases of bullet wounds account for 30-40%.

What could help reduce the number of lethality and injury:

• increase in combat range
• reduction in combat time
• increase in shooting accuracy
• identification of friend-or-foe (IFF)
• improving the collection and exchange of IRS data on enemy positions from and for each military person
• improving cross-domain interaction to suppress enemy positions for each military person
• the speed of first aid ("Care Under Fire", "buddy aid", "en route care"), incl. auto tourniquets for limbs and monitoring of vital signs
• improved logistics and speed of evacuation

Fragment wounds

The number of lethality from fragment wounds in modern conflicts is 20-40%. Non-lethal cases - from 40 to 50%.

What could help reduce the number of lethality and injury (same as above, and plus):

• early warning of mortar and artillery fire
• early warning about drones and robots
• instant messaging between all military personnel within the unit
• improved navigation and coordination of tactical tasks performed by smaller units ("move apart - hit together")
• face protection and improved head protection from fragments at the trajectory end and at a tangent

Mine-explosive wounds

Mine-explosive wounds are the cause of 10-15% of lethal cases. And about 15-20% non-lethal.

What could help reduce the number of lethality and injury (same as above, and plus):

• protection of the entire head and hearing organs from air concussion
• the ability to detect anti-personnel and anti-tank mines, trip wires and IEDs for each military person

Some examples and facts

For example, during the explosion of explosive fragmentation projectile of 155 mm caliber with 10 kg of IMX-104 explosive, there are several damaging factors (according to the degree of danger):

1. fragmentation of up to 2000-4000 elements on average 1 g (0.5-8.0 g) at speeds over 600 m/s (initial speed 50-1400 m/s) in the damage field at a range of up to 200 yd, the irregular shape of the fragments contributes to their rapid loss kinetic energy
2. the impact of a shock wave at a range of up to 20 yd, not only in the line of sight, but also in a shelter or behind an obstacle (leaking shock wave)
3. the impact of a sound wave up to 190 dB SPL, not only in the line of sight, causing acoustic trauma, neurological and mental disorders
4. thermal burn of the face and upper respiratory tract
5. poisoning by toxic substances, primarily carbon monoxide and nitric oxide

Fragment damage in an explosion

• with a mass of steel balls (diameter about 6.25 mm) and fragments ≤1.0 g and an energy of about 26-58 J, penetrating wounds of the skull are observed, at 20-60 J - penetrating wounds of the chest with damage to the ribs, and with an energy of 25-60 J - fractures of the tubular bones of the limbs
• severe injury to an unprotected part of the body is caused by fragments weighing more than 0.5 g with a kinetic energy of more than 100 J / cm ²
• body armor and helmet is effective against most types of fragment damage, but is ineffective against small arms
• light high-velocity fragments inflict the most damage, but lose speed faster with distance

Impact of shock wave

• at a distance of up to 8 yd from such an explosion (caliber 155 mm), almost every damaging factor will be lethal
• at a distance of up to 20 yd, there is compression in front of the shock wave front up to ∆ 250-350 kPa and a discharge below the atmospheric norm of 100 kPa after the shock wave front, the initial speed of which is up to 3000 m/s, causing barotrauma, loss of combat capability (∆ 150-200 kPa - 7-10 days and short-term hearing loss, ∆ 200-250 kPa - 20-30 days with loss of consciousness up to 3 minutes and long-term speech and hearing disorder, ∆ 250-300 kPa - 45-60 days with loss of consciousness up to 30 minutes and the probability of lethality, up to ∆ 350 kPa and more - disability with loss of consciousness for more than 30 minutes with a high probability of lethality)
• far from the epicenter, the shock wave that has lost its strength causes closed injuries to internal organs
• in most cases, even with a non-danger damage, there is a loss of combat capability for 3-5 minutes or more
• according to statistics, on average, during the field training, military persons on foot are exposed to explosive effects up to 5 times a day, but artillery and mortar crews - from 30 to 300 times a day
• despite the fact that the impact of the shock wave is carried out on the entire human body, damage is primarily caused to the most vulnerable organs:
  • hearing organs (at ∆Р 103.4 kPa, with a probability of 50%, a rupture of the eardrums is observed, while the threshold for damage to the eardrum is ∆ 34.5 kPa)
  • vision, brain (contusion of the eyeball, swelling of the brain and craniocerebral injuries when the head hits other hard surfaces)
  • liver and lungs (∆Р 170-200 kPa is the threshold for lung damage, ∆Р 345-400 kPa is defined as the onset of severe lung damage)
  • in addition to mechanical damage to the lungs, the injury causes severe irritation of the autonomic nervous system, a response occurs in the form of hemodynamic disturbances, then hemostasis and hemodiapedesis of blood cells and alveoli, in addition, bronchiolar spasm is observed, which contributes to the formation of foci of atelectasis and emphysema

Face protection and improved head protection

• energy of 100 J/cm ² and more, according to medical data, most small-caliber fragments have when they enter the human body, from which the multi-layered body of the ARHUDFM mask made of composite material (> 400 J/cm²) protect
• at a distance of 8 m or more, in a shelter or behind an obstacle, when using the lower part of the ARHUDFM mask that protects the respiratory organs and the face, in the case of an overpressure jump of the shock wave front, the ear canals, nasal passages, oral cavity and eyeballs are protected by the mask body, seals, non-return valves, air buffer and air filters that reduce the damaging factors of air concussion, stunning, thermal and chemical effects during an explosion
• also, additional protection against a overpressure jump of the shock wave front on the occipital part of the head is performed by the occipital part of the mask (body and dampers), when the schock wave front moves from the front (leaking wave), behind, from right and left
• this feature is not the main (!) but an accompanying benefit of using ARHUDFM for the user, because reduces the risk of damage only to the head area - however, the risk of damage to the lungs, neck, and other internal organs during air concussion, even with a shock wave flowing into shelters and behind obstacles, and even more the risk of fragment wounds is just as high (fragments 1-3 g, 680 m/s, at a distance of 10 yd)
• it is extremely important to constantly monitor the parameters of a person’s life after an injury and timely identify violations for medical care or evacuation. This can be assisted by vitals body sensors in the mask kit.

We deliberately placed emphasis on some issues of the strategy for the development of military tactics and security issues at the beginning of the text. We have repeatedly come across a very superficial frivolous assessment of the design of the device from the outside and a biased opinion without a detailed study of the truly disruptive capabilities that this technology offers to most military personnel and not only on the battlefield. This is a deeply thought-out technology based on numerous studies and statistics. It is designed to save the lives and health of thousands of people, and ultimately hundreds of thousands of people, including the unjustified victims of military conflicts among the civilian population.

Further, you will learn and see how the following features of ARHUDFM help the user to identify and suppress threats, as well as multiply the efficiency in performing tactical tasks in different domains, improve training and exchange of skills among military personnel.

User benefits

Lower part of the mask:

• protects respiratory organs from dust, gases, aerosols, bacteria and viruses
• provides a functional drinking system
• reduces the risk of barotrauma and the degree of injury from air concussion during an explosion
• isolates the user's voice during communications and voice commands
• prevents fogging of the mask visor
• does not obstruct breathing due to the design with very low resistance

Customer benefits

The hardware part is capable of completely replacing in the future (also reducing the weight and cost of equipment, getting rid of cables on the body):

Equipment	Price, $	Weight, g	Notice	Price, $	Weight, g
Samsung Tablet PC 10"	800	470		-	-
Night Vision Binoculars	8,800-13,700	740	~500g + 1 battery 60g (15 hr), 4 batteries 240g (50hr)	-	-
Binoculars 10x50	545	730		-	-
Rangefinder	400	270		-	-
Tactical Headset	700	335		-	-
Ballistic Meteo Station	900	120		-	-
Multi-channel Handheld Radio	5,600	1250		-	-
Tactical flashlight	156	170		-	-
Tourniquet CAT 8pcs	290	600		-	-
Medical Kit
3 external antennas VHF / UHV / L/S	800	310	multiband, dual-band, wideband	?	?
ARHUDFM Model One full set (Basic Pack)	-	-	over 14 hours of continuous operation	3,600	1,300
Continuous Wind Capture impellers 2pcs (add-on)	-	-	increased accuracy in measuring wind speed and direction, hands free	150	80
8 auto tourniquets (add-on)	-	-	contains sensors (adhesive gel reusable electrodes) of ECG, pulse, blood pressure, saturation, temperature; controlled by VBS app via Bluetooth spring cocked mechanism with additional electromechanical string tensioner and electromagnetic lock	2,000	1,120
Care Under Fire set (add-on)	-	-	elastic belt with pockets, plasma substitute 700 ml, anticoagulant and other solutions 100 ml, automatic infusion therapy (fluid resuscitation) system, adhesive gel reusable electrodes for monitoring and defibrillation, automatic defibrillator, 2 pneumatic pumps for pulmonary resuscitation	2,800	1,300
Software Defined Antenna (add-on)	-	-	Rx / Tx, 2 MHz - 8 GHz, 3x64 patch antennas (RF beams) for Comms, RF scanner, Radio Direction Finding, Radar Detection, Passive Radar, Drone Detection, Remote Control	1,600	250
Drinking water		2,000			2,000
Kit One (Model 2)	18,991+	6,995	15.4 lbs vs 13.3 lbs	10,150	6,050
Optional:
Tactical Mine Detector	9,500	6,360	diving depth - down to 78 in, search head - D 10.5 in, metal-only anti-personnel (AP) and anti-tank (AT) mines (ground penetrating radar (GPR) and highly sensitive metal detector (MD))	-	-
Handheld metal re-radiation radar (add-on)	-	-	diving depth - down to 4-8 in, search spot D 9.6 in, battery up to 4 hours, SHF impulse metal re-radiation detection and Computer Vision integrated (metal and non-metal mines on the ground)	1,800	210
Optional battery up to 1.1kWh (add-on)	-	-	over 72 hours of continuous operation, powered by a defibrillator and pneumatic pumps (4x12, max 48pcs LiMgCoAl 26650 3.7V 5500mah)	1,400	4,600
Telescopic sight 8x	3,368	900	Trijicon Squad Common Optic (SCO) telescopic sight, 8x magnification	-	-
Digital sight 24x (add-on)	-	-	Embedded (no costs extra), addon: high-precision muzzle line indicator	300	300
Total kit (Model 3)	31,859+	14,255	31.4 lbs vs 24.6 lbs	13,650	11,160

Key comparison notes:

• the customer direct benefits is -57% in price difference and -25% in the weight
• it is likely that with the distribution partner (Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, BAE Systems, Elbit Systems, Rheinmetall, General Dynamics, Palantir, etc.) the price will increase, but we expect that the difference in this case will be more than 20%
• the distributor's bonus up to $2,300/pcs (totally -50% in price difference, $15,950 total kit price)
• $1,440 is subscription per year (SaaS)
• LTV $12,480 for the full set (Model One: Basic Pack) only without optional addons ($2,340 annual charge-offs) the average time served in the U.S. armed forces is somewhere between 4 and 8 years. Most people only do one contract in the military. The most popular contract is the 4-year contract.
• LTV $21,213 for the Model 2: Kit One (+4 add-ons, $3,978 annual charge-offs)
• LTV $30,813 for the Model 3: Total kit (+7 add-ons) and distributor's bonus ($5,778 annual charge-offs)
• Average LTV $18,767 (Basic Pack x0.5, Kit One x0.3, Total kit x0.2) and ($3,519 annual charge-offs)
• new disruptive capabilitites for performance, accuracy and safety
• "more lethal first-shot shooter"
• "this means they can use less rounds to overwhelm an enemy"
• "it’s all about making an accurate decision"
• "the product line gives squad leaders or individual riflemen more time to make a decision to eliminate that threat if necessary"

Facts for comparison:

• we expect to reduce at least halve the mass of additional power batteries (10.1 lbs, 1.1 kWh, over 72 hours of continuous operation) within 3-4 years as battery technology advances
• technologies for cardiac monitoring, health monitoring using sensors, automatic defibrillation, automatic resuscitation on the move have been used for more than 10-20 years; however, with the help of modern components and technologies, we are able to make them much more compact and lighter so that they can be included in the standard set of equipment (like body armor, knee pads, gloves, ballistic helmet) to give the military an extra chance to stay alive in a potentially extreme situation
• projected price of ARHUDFM is lower than the cost of one M1128 155 mm artillery shell (~$4000)
• a full set of equipment is 47% cheaper and 2 pounds lighter, but the difference in capabilities is huge

Situational Awareness Summary

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Situational Awareness (SA) is a concept that has different meanings for different people. About 15-20 years ago, DARPA wanted to prioritize SA goal in the field of electronic mapping and navigation. Ten years later, SA was extended to include high-tech visual detection devices, which were already widespread at that time. The size, weight, and high price of the devices in use made it impossible to move forward. There has been no significant development progress in the last 10 years. With a single but very important exception, the age of drone and robot warfare has arrived. For the most part, the devices used are digital, but not integrated with each other. To overcome the impasse in the development of situational awareness tasks, the user needs a compact and lightweight, but incredibly high-performance and multifunctional computer on his head (more productive than most office laptops), without cables on his body, at a price that the Pentagon is willing to allocate for each soldier.

In 2024, we formulate the concept of SA more broadly. It includes 5 directions:

• Battlefield & Tactical Environment
• Radio Frequency Environment
• Visual Environment
• Audial Environment
• Vitals Body Sensors & First Aid

In simple terms, Situational Awareness is the information that is needed to be up-to-date every second so that the combat unit and each individual can perform the mission with the greatest efficiency and without compromising their own health.

Without these elements, Situational Awareness will be incomplete.

Key Insights on War and Peace

Armed conflict is common and takes different forms

As the chart shows, at least 150 ongoing armed conflicts have been recorded each year recently. This number is up from previous decades, but even then, it rarely fell below 100, and there has been no year without armed conflict for centuries. Wars — usually defined as armed conflicts that are especially deadly — have been rarer, with between 0 and 12 active wars per year. Still, there have been very few years without any. The frequency of armed conflicts also differs depending on who fights them. Armed conflict can occur between states (interstate), between a state and a non-state armed group within its territory (intrastate) or outside of it (extrasystemic), between non-state armed groups (non-state), or between an armed group and civilians (one-sided violence). Looking at these conflict types more closely, we see that there have been no extrasystemic conflicts in recent decades. They disappeared after decolonization in the middle of the 20th century. Interstate conflicts are rare: there have been, at most, three ongoing conflicts of this type in any given year in the last three decades. And several years in that period saw no such conflict at all. Intrastate conflicts and one-sided violence are more frequent. In recent decades, there have been several dozen conflicts of these types ongoing each year. And non-state conflicts have become the most common type; they have been the primary driver of the recent increase in conflicts.

Armed conflict is a rare cause of death in most years and countries

Globally, close to 80,000 people died due to fighting in armed conflicts in 2019. This means conflicts caused around 1 in 700 deaths. This is shown in the chart, which presents what people died from during that year. You can find conflict deaths in the bottom-right corner. Armed conflict is a much rarer cause of death than non-communicable (in blue) or infectious diseases (in red). It is also less common than other causes of violent death: more than five times as many people died from homicides in 2019, and almost ten times as many from suicide. Yet, the number of conflict deaths can change a lot from year to year — in 2005, fewer than 20,000 people died in armed conflicts, while in 1994, in the wake of the genocide in Rwanda, it was more than 800,000. During the two World Wars, armed conflict was a leading cause of death, with several million deaths per year. And while armed conflict is a rare cause of death globally in most years, it is much more common in some countries.

Some countries are much more affected by conflict than others

There are very large differences in the number of deaths from conflict across the world. The map shows annual deaths from armed conflicts in each country. We see that a large number of countries around the world are relatively peaceful. In them, few to no people die due to conflicts. Many of them are in Europe, but there are countries where few die in conflicts in all world regions. In other countries, however, deaths from conflict are common. They see dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of deaths per year. In a few, conflict deaths account for several percent of all deaths in a year. These global differences look similar when we consider that countries differ in the size of their populations. The countries with the most conflict deaths can change frequently. In 2022, more than 40% of the people who died from conflict worldwide were in Ethiopia. In 2021, it was Afghanistan, with almost a third of all global conflict deaths occurring there. The countries with the most conflict deaths also differ depending on whether we look at interstate, intrastate, non-state conflicts, or one-sided violence.

Some conflicts are much, much deadlier than most

There are very large differences in how deadly different wars are: most death tolls are relatively small, a few are large, and very few are extremely large. The chart shows this for all conventional wars between 1800 and 2011, ranked by how deadly they were. It relies on low estimates of soldier deaths from Project Mars. Even though most wars killed several thousand people, we can barely make them out in the chart. This is because the big wars were much more deadly: wars like the Russian Civil War and the Korean War killed several hundred thousand people. And wars such as the Chinese Civil War and the Vietnam War killed between 1 and 2 million combatants. But the deaths in the World Wars tower even above them: in World War I, more than 7 million soldiers died. And in World War II alone, more than 21 million combatants died. Three-quarters of all war deaths since 1800 happened in just these two wars, and 90% in the biggest ten wars; this is one of the reasons why we have to treat any trends over time with caution.

Conflict deaths have declined; it is on us that this trend continues

Fewer people died in conflicts in recent decades than in most of the 20th century. The chart shows that several million people died in conflicts in the years after World War II. After falling to much lower levels in the 1950s, conflict deaths surged again in the 1970s and 1980s. But this time, they peaked at 300,000 deaths annually. They fell to much lower levels in the 1990s and have stayed below previous peaks in the decades since. We see these lower numbers of deaths also in other data sources. But there are several reasons we cannot be confident that this decline in conflict deaths will continue. First, the chart shows more deaths in the last decade and, most recently, a spike in deaths due to wars in Ethiopia and Ukraine. The trends also differ by world region: deaths have plummeted and stayed low for Asia and Oceania, but they have recently increased in the Middle East and soared in Africa and Europe. One more reason we cannot be confident is that the deadliness of conflicts shows a lot of variation from year to year. Some wars are much deadlier than others, so a single deadly conflict could change this trend completely. Researchers have used statistical tests to tell actual trends from random fluctuations but have come to different conclusions. But the absence of a clear trend should not cause despair: countries have built more peaceful relations between and within them. It is up to us that these historical trends continue over the next decades and centuries.

Relationships between countries have become more peaceful

Researchers have argued that we should think of peace as more than just the absence of violence (called negative peace), but envision it as sustained cooperation or even mutual protection between groups (positive peace). The chart shows global data that uses this distinction to classify the bilateral relationships between countries into different levels of peacefulness or hostility, expressed here as the share of each type of relationship. Most relationships between countries are characterized as negative and positive peace – which is further split into warm peace and security communities. Only a small percentage of relationships are classified as rivalries. These rivalries are separated into lesser or severe rivalries by the researchers who produced this data. We also see that relationships between countries have changed over time: more than a century ago, in 1900, most countries did not use violence against each other, but none had highly cooperative relationships. And almost 20% of relationships were rivals that occasionally or frequently used violence against each other. Conflict surged during the two World Wars and the early years of the Cold War. But then, rivalries steadily declined, and bilateral cooperation spread. Importantly, this happened while many more countries became independent, and many more pairs of countries started having a relationship. Many countries deepened their ties in the 1990s and 2000s, predominantly in the European Union. This turned almost a fifth of relationships into security communities. Recent years have seen slight increases in rivalries and declines in peaceful relationships. But bilateral relations remain much more peaceful than over the entire 20th century. Even if we are more ambitious in our vision of peace, we see that the world has made progress.

Modern warfare

Modern warfare is warfare that diverges notably from previous military concepts, methods, and technology, emphasizing how combatants must modernize to preserve their battle worthiness. As such, it is an evolving subject, seen differently in different times and places. In its narrowest sense, it is merely a synonym for contemporary warfare.

Drone warfare

Drone warfare has become a reality in full volume during the military operations in Ukraine. Many countries have been using various unmanned systems for a long time, but the experience of recent conflicts shows in what direction and at what speed this type of warfare is developing. Reconnaissance drones, fire correction drones, fixed wing attack drones, rotor attack drones, comm drones, electronic warfare drones. Unmanned control systems for armored vehicles, helicopters, and maritime attack drones are being actively introduced. It is becoming more and more common to see robotic dogs being used to patrol military bases and assist in mine clearance. Wheeled and tracked military robots are used for fire support and combat reconnaissance. Other robots provide combat logistics and casualty evacuation from the battlefield. Robotic turrets are used on warships and boats, as well as on helicopters and transport aircraft. So far, key control functions are performed remotely by an operator, but systems where most functions are performed by AI are becoming more common.

Aerial warfare

Aerial warfare is the use of military aircraft and other flying machines in warfare. Aerial warfare includes bombers attacking enemy concentrations or strategic targets; fighter aircraft battling for control of airspace; attack aircraft engaging in close air support against ground targets; naval aviation flying against sea and nearby land targets; gliders, helicopters and other aircraft to carry airborne forces such as paratroopers; aerial refueling tankers to extend operation time or range; and military transport aircraft to move cargo and personnel.

Electronic warfare

Electronic warfare refers to mainly non-violent practices used chiefly to support other areas of warfare. The term was originally coined to encompass the interception and decoding of enemy radio communications, and the communications technologies and cryptography methods used to counter such interception, as well as jamming, radio stealth, and other related areas. Over the later years of the 20th century and early years of the 21st century, this has expanded to cover a wide range of areas: the use of, detection of and avoidance of detection by radar and sonar systems, computer hacking, etc.

Land warfare

Ground warfare involves three types of combat units: infantry, armor, and artillery.

Infantry in modern times would consist of mechanized infantry and airborne forces. Usually having a type of rifle or sub-machine gun, an infantryman is the basic unit of an army.

Armored warfare in modern times involves a variety of armored fighting vehicles for the purpose of battle and support. Tanks or other armored vehicles (such as armored personnel carriers or tank destroyers) are slower, yet stronger hunks of metal. They are invulnerable to enemy machine gun fire but prone to rocket infantry, mines, and aircraft so are usually accompanied by infantry. In urban areas, because of smaller space, an armored vehicle is exposed to hidden enemy infantry but armored vehicles can play a critical role in urban combat. In rural areas, an armored vehicle does not have to worry about hidden units though muddy and damp terrain that have always been a factor of weakness for tanks and vehicles.

Artillery in contemporary times is distinguished by its large caliber, firing an explosive shell or rocket, and being of such a size and weight as to require a specialized mount for firing and transport. Weapons covered by this term include the howitzer, cannon, mortar, and field gun (collectively called cannon artillery, gun artillery or tube artillery) and rocket artillery. The term "artillery" has traditionally not been used for projectiles with internal guidance systems, even though some artillery units employ surface-to-surface missiles. Recent advances in terminal guidance systems for small munitions has allowed large caliber shells to be fitted with precision guidance fuses, blurring this distinction.

Naval warfare

Naval warfare takes place on the high seas (blue water navy). Usually, only large, powerful nations have competent blue water or deep water navies. Modern navies primarily use aircraft carriers, submarines, frigates, cruisers, and destroyers for combat. This provides a versatile array of attacks, capable of hitting ground targets, air targets, or other seafaring vessels. Most modern navies also have a large naval aviation contingent, deployed from aircraft carriers. In World War II, small craft (motor torpedo boats variously called PT boats, MTBs, MGBs, Schnellboote, or MAS-boats) fought near shore. This developed in the Vietnam War into riverine warfare (brown water navy), in intertidal and river areas. Irregular warfare makes this sort of combat more likely in the future.

Network-centric warfare

Network-centric warfare is essentially a new military doctrine made possible by the Information Age. Weapons platforms, sensors, and command and control centers are being connected through high-speed communication networks. The doctrine is related to the Revolution in Military Affairs debate.

The overall network which enables this strategy in the United States military is called the Global Information Grid.

The doctrine of network-centric warfare for the United States armed forces draws its highest level of guidance from the concept of "team warfare", meaning the integration and synchronization of all appropriate capabilities across the various services, ranging from Army to Air Force to Coast Guard. This is part of the principle of joint warfare.

The tenets of network-centric warfare are:

• Tenet 1: A robustly networked force improves information sharing.
• Tenet 2: Information sharing and collaboration enhance the quality of information and shared situational awareness.
• Tenet 3: Shared situational awareness enables self-synchronization.
• Tenet 4: These, in turn, dramatically increase mission effectiveness.

Net-Centric operations are compatible with Mission Command doctrine, which theoretically allows considerable freedom of action for combat troops, and with more decentralized approaches to Command and Control (C2).

Our opinion

We are certainly committed to peace. But history shows that there have been, are and will be sociopaths and dictators who seek armed conflict. As long as education and income inequality prevail in the world, ambitious politicians will take advantage of it. In addition, many large non-democratic countries such as Russia and China have a growing number of serious economic problems that cannot be solved without radical reform of their political and social strategies. This means loss of power for dictators. The way they choose is to reinforce dictatorship under pain of war (or rally around the flag) to maintain their power.

Under these conditions, the civilized democratic world is able to counter dictators with exceptionally superior military technology. This makes sense. Because otherwise dictatorial regimes understand the method of deterrence solely through political negotiations as weakness and continue to use the fear of war for their own selfish purposes. Realpolitik lies in the pragmatic goals of military superiority of NATO countries and their allies, where power is controlled by society, not by a narrow circle of cynical politicians obsessed with lifelong power.

See also

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